With the polls showing Obama with a commanding lead, including leads in the swing states (all former red states), tonight's simulation is more of an academic exercise. My model, which relates polling margins from realclearpolitics.com and pollster.com to win probabilities has Obama winning 9,997 times out of 10,000. The mean Obama EV count is now at 352.1, with a standard deviation of 24.39. Therefore, if these polling data, and this model relating polling margin to win probability are accurate, the 95% confidence interval for Obama EVs is (303.3, 400.9). Don't forget to vote!Monday, November 3, 2008
2008 Presidential Election Simulation (IV): Election Day Eve
With the polls showing Obama with a commanding lead, including leads in the swing states (all former red states), tonight's simulation is more of an academic exercise. My model, which relates polling margins from realclearpolitics.com and pollster.com to win probabilities has Obama winning 9,997 times out of 10,000. The mean Obama EV count is now at 352.1, with a standard deviation of 24.39. Therefore, if these polling data, and this model relating polling margin to win probability are accurate, the 95% confidence interval for Obama EVs is (303.3, 400.9). Don't forget to vote!
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3 comments:
This is very hopeful, I'll be glad to see this turn out correct.
But... what are you going to post about after this is over?
I know it! What will I talk about? I intend to do an election post-mortem to see which polls were more accurate and how changes in the model could have improved predictions. After that, I guess I'll have to focus more on topics like philosophy of mind, science, and playing with statistics in other contexts.
Thanks for reading!
I'm no expert on statistics, but I really like the 9,997 times out of 10,000 part. :-)
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