Obama doesn't need Ohio or Florida (although he may still get one or both of them)

In the past two weeks, the numbers have become far more favorable for Obama across the board. This includes leads in Florida and Ohio as well as previously red states like Virginia, North Carolina, and others.

The most recent polls seem to have the race tightening somewhat in Ohio in particular and to some extent in Florida (graphs created by pollster.com, using trend lines that are maximally sensitive to local changes as well as noise).




Nevertheless, Obama still wins if he is able to hang on to New Hampshire (Obama + 7.3 to +10.4), New Mexico (Obama +7.5 to +8.4), Virginia (Obama +7.7 to +8.1), and Colorado (Obama +5.8 to + 6.2) (ignoring all other toss-up states)





Of these, the margin in New Hampshire may be tightening somewhat, although Obama still has a healthy lead.



Additional toss-ups which lean in Obama's direction (when smoothing is maximally sensitive to local changes) include Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, and still of course Ohio, and Florida. In recent days, North Dakota and West Virginia have also become toss-ups, and Obama still threatens to pick up Indiana. With the four I mentioned and graphed above (NM, NH, VA, and CO), however, all these other states, which include the ostensibly critical Florida and Ohio simply become gravy for Obama.

Here's a wonderful graph from Charles Franklin, that puts this into perspective. Read his full article here.
So the story line of the last two elections (namely, that it all comes down to who can win 2 out of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida) has changed. There are many ways Obama can win whether or not he gets Ohio or Florida, and with a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, it is unlikely to be a deciding factor (any more than, say, New York or Maryland).