The difference between this version and the previous is actually more of a bug correction than a substantive change. The previous version used each team's average score for the season to that point as a starting point. It then shifted that starting point up or down based on how well the team does relative to an overall average of teams along with factors related to the specific opponent. Therefore there was some redundancy such that a team that is better than average will start with a better than average score and then be further shifted up. So this version starts everyone at the overall average and simply shifts that value based on how well a given team has been doing and the specific opponent. It's a subtle distinction, but one that should predict fewer blowouts. That appears to be the case. Below are predictions using v1.0 and then v1.1. I added the predicted margin along with the point spread set by Vegas to see how the model does not just in terms of picking winners but against the spread (ATS).
Version 1.0
| Away | Home | Away Score | Home Score | Away probability | Predicted Margin | Vegas Spread |
| Packers | Lions | 39 | 16 | 0.97 | -23 | -10 |
| Raiders | Cowboys | 13 | 27 | 0.18 | 14 | 13.5 |
| Giants | Broncos | 28 | 18 | 0.8 | -10 | -6.5 |
| Browns | Bengals | 15 | 26 | 0.22 | 11 | 13.5 |
| Buccaneers | Falcons | 15 | 36 | 0.06 | 21 | 12 |
| Dolphins | Bills | 28 | 14 | 0.87 | -14 | -3 |
| Seahawks | Rams | 23 | 11 | 0.82 | -12 | -4 |
| Panthers | Jets | 16 | 23 | 0.26 | 7 | 3 |
| Redskins | Eagles | 10 | 28 | 0.07 | 18 | 9 |
| Colts | Texans | 31 | 19 | 0.85 | -12 | -3.5 |
| Chiefs | Chargers | 12 | 34 | 0.006 | 22 | 13.5 |
| Jaguars | 49ers | 19 | 22 | 0.39 | 3 | 3 |
| Cardinals | Titans | 34 | 21 | 0.82 | -13 | 3 |
| Bears | Vikings | 19 | 40 | 0.05 | 21 | 11 |
| Steelers | Ravens | 20 | 23 | 0.42 | 3 | 2.5 |
| Patriots | Saints | 35 | 46 | 0.23 | 11 | 2 |
These picks are not particularly controversial but several of the probabilities tend to be extreme.
Version 1.1
| Away | Home | Away Score | Home Score | Away probability | Predicted Margin | Vegas Spread |
| Packers | Lions | 35 | 18 | 0.93 | -17 | -10 |
| Raiders | Cowboys | 9 | 26 | 0.09 | 17 | 13.5 |
| Giants | Broncos | 23 | 22 | 0.56 | -1 | -6.5 |
| Browns | Bengals | 12 | 26 | 0.13 | 14 | 13.5 |
| Buccaneers | Falcons | 19 | 33 | 0.14 | 14 | 12 |
| Dolphins | Bills | 26 | 19 | 0.71 | -7 | -3 |
| Seahawks | Rams | 25 | 14 | 0.81 | -11 | -4 |
| Panthers | Jets | 17 | 24 | 0.29 | 7 | 3 |
| Redskins | Eagles | 14 | 23 | 0.2 | 9 | 9 |
| Colts | Texans | 26 | 18 | 0.77 | -8 | -3.5 |
| Chiefs | Chargers | 16 | 29 | 0.05 | 13 | 13.5 |
| Jaguars | 49ers | 20 | 23 | 0.41 | 3 | 3 |
| Cardinals | Titans | 31 | 21 | 0.76 | -10 | 3 |
| Bears | Vikings | 20 | 31 | 0.18 | 11 | 11 |
| Steelers | Ravens | 19 | 21 | 0.44 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Patriots | Saints | 28 | 32 | 0.41 | 4 | 2 |
In the second set of predictions the average absolute value of the point difference is 9.25 compared to 13.44 in the first version. Neither value is necessarily clearly better. The average margin of victory for the last two weeks were 9.38 and 8.19, but three weeks ago it was 13.92.
I hope to make a few additional changes soon, but I wanted to get these numbers up before the majority of the games were played.










